April-May, 2004 |
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Market Snapshot - Japan
Opportunity in a shrinking workforce
Each month the Japanalyzer takes you
inside one of Japan’s IT industries- showing you who’s who and where
the market is heading. This month we focus an important driver for
all industries in Japan, the Japanese workforce- which
unfortunately, is shrinking as a result of the graying of Japan. Two
important phenomenon are behind this critical change: the increasing
longevity of the Japanese and the falling birthrate. Of the two, the
low birthrate seems to cause the most concern amongst Japanese
bureaucrats who understand the social and economic implications of
such trends. In reality, Japan now has one of the lowest birthrates
in the world at 1.33. But others see that such socioeconomic shifts
can also yield opportunity for new businesses, technologies, and
ideas. Instead of being a problem for Japan, a smaller population
may actually solve some issues in the long run.
The first and most obvious victim of
a shrinking population is the Japanese retirement system. Less
taxpayers means less funds available to pay retirees- a story
similar to the plight of the Social Security system in the US. One
way out of the situation is to increase taxes but most politicians
are reluctant to pursue such action unless there is no other resort.
A better alternative is to increase the workforce and for this a
solution exists- Immigration. A recent UN report forecast that to
maintain the size of its working population, Japan would need 17
million new immigrants by 2050. Japan’s population would grow from
1% foreign to 18% in such a scenario. Immigration would not only
solve the retirement funding problem and help maintain Japan’s
economy but it could also spark new innovation in much the way the
immigrants have fueled Silicon Valley. Despite the pent up demand
for IT engineers from China and India, there are few more of them in
the US than in Japan. Others have suggested that making it easier
for women to return to the workforce after childbirth, could bolster
the workforce population. The upside is similar to that of an
immigrant flow: diversity, more talent, and innovation in the
workforce.
Yet even if the Japanese workforce
were to increase modestly it would probably never be enough. Some
entrepreneurs have started to realize this and are developing
products/services that take advantage of the new social paradigm of
an aging/shrinking Japan. Matsushita has developed a series of
companion robots (forms include cats, wombats, and bears) that have
a microcomputer and a local network connection. The robots sole
purpose is to watch over the elderly in a retirement home. The
robots monitor patients' response times to spoken questions. They
record how long they spend performing various tasks, before relaying
conclusions to staff or alerting them to unexpected changes. The
voice recognition interface helps remove the barriers presented by
using traditional computers for similar tasks. Meanwhile Toyota
announced recently its plans to develop partner robots designed to
function as personal assistants for humans including the elderly.
What Toyota and Matsushita have come
to realize is that by substituting robots for people (because there
are less people to work) to service the people most in need (the
increasing elderly) they are developing a new business model for
Japanese society and perhaps all aging societies.
Some would even say that a smaller
Japanese population might actually be good for Japanese business.
Less workers means a less crowded Tokyo making the quality of life
and work better for everyone. Japanese workers are known for working
longer hours yet are in reality, less productive by the hour than
Western counterparts. A smaller workforce would force Japanese
companies to be more productive (the phenomenon experienced by
American companies after the dotcom bubble burst). A drive for such
productivity would also likely generate new innovations as Japanese
IT suppliers would seek out ways to streamline customer business
processes.
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This
Month's Bridge Builder
Featuring
the real voice of IT across the Pacific
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April-May, 2004
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How
one American “made it” in Japan
Mr. Jay
Smith, Visiting Lecturer, Kyocera Venture Business Program,
Kagoshima University
It’s difficult enough for an entrepreneur to
find business success in Japan: the red tape, the tight fund
raising, the over-complex supply chain, the stigma associated
with entrepreneurs. It’s as if the system conspires against
the newcomer, stifling whatever creativity and innovation a
business founder can bring to bear. But imagine the added
difficulties the foreigner faces and you can understand why
there are so few Americans who’ve successfully built
businesses in Japan. It’s simply too much of a challenge. But
for people like Mr. Jay Smith, those challenges can be turned
into a source of strength. The Asia-Pacific Student
Entrepreneurship Society (ASES) at Stanford recently had Mr.
Smith speak on the topic of US-Japan entrepreneurship. Mr.
Smith regaled the audience with his success story and gave
some helpful advice for anyone interested in working within
the Japanese marketplace. This month’s Bridge Builder features
key highlights from his presentation.
Mr. Smith gave the audience some historical
perspective by explaining that when he first went to Japan in
1989 as part of his studies at the Harvard Business School,
Japan was still very much “a mecca for business”, the envy of
economies worldwide. He was so impressed with the country that
he decided to work there, first as a consultant for a Booz
Allen- spinoff consulting firm. Mr. Smith said his most
interesting consulting experience was the sale of cup noodles
via catalog in Russia. What impressed him about the project
was that he actually found someone at the Japanese noodle
company willing to work on the concept. The point of learning
being that even in conservative Japanese companies, you can
find youthful mid-level managers, “young turks” he called
them, willing to become a champion for an idea they believe
in.
After his consulting employment, Mr. Smith
decided to go the entrepreneurial route by starting IAC,
initially an import/export company focused on selling wines in
Japan, art, and software. Eventually the company grew into IT
services and as the Internet started to take hold in Japan,
IAC turned to providing a BBS service complete with free
e-mail. IAC became known, particularly in the foreign
community, as a local resource for all things Internet:
registration, advertising, and dialup. As the company expanded
it required capital and Mr. Smith spearheaded the effort to
successfully raise $4 million from a foreign hedge-fund active
in Japan. The increase in capital allowed IAC to take on
website creation, access, and training for the Internet and
even delve deeper into online content. The company bought and
ran the Tokyo Journal magazine from 1996-1997. IAC eventually
grew to 60 employees and several million dollars in sales.
Competition from local ISPS eventually caused a cash crunch,
forcing the founders to sell the company in 1998. However, the
company’s free email service (Jmail
www.jmail.co.jp ) remains today as a testament to
the company’s achievements.
Throughout his presentation and the ensuing
panel discussion, Mr. Smith continued to share his thoughts on
doing business in Japan as a foreigner. One theme was that the
incumbent Japanese bureaucracy simply didn’t understand the
Internet and the plight of the entrepreneur back in the
mid-1990’s. For example, to make IAC into an official
corporation (which at the time meant having $100,000 in
capital in the bank), Mr. Smith had to buy a defunct company
and change the name to get around the cash requirement. To get
an Internet address, IAC was told by JPNIC (the Japanese
registry) that the rule was “one company one domain”. So IAC
asked to register “japan.co.jp”. In response, JPNIC was
puzzled as to why IAC would want such a name. Mr. Smith
clearly recalled the question from JPNIC: “Why would you want
such a domain name? Everyone will come to your website.” IAC
ultimately got the domain, a fact that later became an
embarrassment for JPNIC for not realizing the significance at
the time. However, Mr. Smith was also quick to point out the
advantages rather than hurdles faced by foreign entrepreneurs
in Japan. He mentioned that when he started doing business in
Japan at the age of 24 he found it much easier to obtain
meetings with senior executives than his local counterparts of
the same age. Mr. Smith and the panel attributed to this to
the general attitude in Japan that foreign businessman are
welcome and respected.
For more information on Stanford ASES,
please visit them on the web at
http://ases.stanford.edu/. Mr. Jay Smith can be reached at
jay@bizsmith.com .
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Business Show Tokyo
May 11-14, 2004, Tokyo
Big Sight (Tokyo International Exhibition Center)
Consists of four separate specialty trade fairs:
Mobile and Network Solution Fair, Digital Document Solution Fair, Business
Software and System Solution Fair , Office Management Solution FairVenture.
Business &
Technology Fair 2004 Kansai - Information Technology Synthesis Fair
May 19-22, 2004, Intex
Osaka
General IT and business exhibits focused on Network
security, IT industry-university cooperation, Japan-China IT exchanges
Japan-South Korea IT exchanges, IP& mobile practical uses, digital
production systems, and IT ventures.
LinuxWorld Tokyo
June 2-4, 2004,
Tokyo Big Sight (Tokyo International Exhibition Center)
An exhibition of Hardware, Software, SI, Services,
Publications for Linux Technology.
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